Samuel Hanan
Todos os presidentes do Brasil nas duas últimas décadas sabiam e sabem da necessidade de cortar despesas, reduzir a gastança do governo e o gigantismo da máquina pública para dispor de recursos destinados a investimentos inadiáveis, por exemplo, em educação em tempo integral, em melhoria da remuneração dos professores, emampliação das coberturas do Sistema Único de Saúde (SUS), e em universalização dos serviços do saneamento básico, hoje uma das maiores vergonhas nacionais, com impacto direto na saúde pública e na qualidade de vida dos cidadãos.
Tais medidas, entretanto, jamais foram implementadas. Essa necessidade, ainda que gritante, foi sempre sufocada pelos interesses eleitorais – especialmente a reeleição – visando à manutenção do poder, como se o país tivesse donatários em pleno século XXI. Para isso, nenhuma preocupação em fazer o combate efetivo à corrupção e enorme boa vontade com a concessão de privilégios, generosidade com disponibilização de recursos públicos para parte da mídia e para os influenciadores sociais, com destaque para a área da cultura. A caixa de bondades foi mantida aberta.
O preço dessa desastrosa opção, que perdura desde a aprovação do instituto da reeleição, em 1997, tem sido muito elevado, prejudicando a prestação de serviços essenciais com precaridades alarmantes, além do brutal empobrecimento da população brasileira.
Não é necessário muito esforço para a comprovação dos desastres causados por essas políticas governamentais que privilegiam poucos em detrimento da grande massa carente, a plutocracia tomando o lugar da democracia. Um bom exemplo são os gastos primários.
Em 2002, último ano do governo de Fernando Henrique Cardoso, os gastos primários alcançaram o montante eǫuivalente a 14,7% do Produto Interno Bruto (PIB), segundo dados do Tesouro Nacional, da Fundação Getúlio Vargas (FGV) e do Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE). Na sequência, ao final dos dois primeiros mandatos do presidente Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (2003/2010) esses gastos foram expandidos e chegaram a 17,0% do PIB. Um aumento de 2,3 pontos percentuais, equivalentes hoje a R$ 269 bilhões/ano.
A irresponsabilidade continuou durante os 5 anos e 7 meses dos governos da presidente Dilma Roussef e, com isso, os gastos primários atingiram um recorde de 19,5% do PIB, ou seja, mais R$ 292 bilhões/ano, em valores atualizados.
No período seguinte, nos governos de Michel Temer e de Jair Bolsonaro, houve recuo de 19,5% para 18% do PIB nesses gastos. Mas voltou a subir no biênio 2023/2024, já no terceiro governo de Lula, atingindo o nível de 20% do PIB. Significa dizer que o aumento entre 2002 até hoje custou mais para o país 5,3 pontos percentuais do PIB, ou R$ 622 bilhões/ano em valores de hoje.
É preciso falar também sobre os privilégios concedidos ao setor privado, por meio de renúncias fiscais – os chamados gastos tributários – , igualmente responsáveis por tornar o Brasil ainda mais desigual e injusto.
Em 2001, os gastos tributários da União eram equivalentes a 1,47% do PIB, cerca de R$172 bilhões/ ano). Em 2010, último ano do segundo mandato do presidente Lula, já era mais do que o dobro. Correspondia a 3,60% do PIB, ou aproximadamente R$ 420 bilhões/ano, em valores atualizados. A farra nos gastos públicos se repetiu com a concessão desses privilégios no último ano da presidente Dilma, quando já tinha atingido o nível de 4,33% do PIB, ou, em valores de hoje, R$ 506 bilhões/ano.
O problema permanece em 2024, ano que deve fechar no absurdo índice de 5,50% do PIB. Merece destaque a versão preliminar dos estudos da FGV , de novembro. Amparada nos dados oficiais da Secretaria da Receita Federal e das Leis de Diretrizes Orçamentárias (LDOs) dos estados brasileiros, essa versão sinaliza que no ano as renúncias fiscais do governo geral atingirão patamar ainda maior, de 6,9% do PIB, o corresponderia a R$ 807 bilhões/ano, ou seja, mais de 20% do total da carga tributária nacional.
A dimensão da gravidade pode ser aferida por meio da comparação do excesso da gastança da máquina pública (12,8% do PIB) com a média dos 38 países da Organização para a Cooperação e Desenvolvimento Econômico (OCDE), de apenas 9,8 do PIB com a mesma despesa.
Se somados as despesas com o gigantismo do setor público, com os gastos tributários, e com a corrupção do setor público (2,5% do PIB, segundo estimativa das instituições), a conclusão é a de de que todo esse desperdício que poderia ser evitado chega a 38% de toda a carga tributária nacional, já bastante pesada para as pessoas físicas e jurídicas.
Não há defesa para essas priorizações equivocadas dos governos brasileiros pós-1997 quando se olha para os indicadores sociais e se constata sua degradação. Um exemplo é o Índice de Desenvolvimento Humano (IDH), medido a partir das condições de educação, renda e bem-estar da população. Nesse índice, o Brasil caiu da 77ª posição em 2002 para a 88ª ou 89ª colocação mundial em 2024.
No coeficiente Gini, que mede a distribuição de renda nas nações, o país está estagnado, nas últimas décadas, entre as 10 piores nações do planeta.
Vergonhoso também é o desempenho brasileiro no Índice de Retorno de Bem Estar à Sociedade Brasileira (IRBES), estacionado na última posição entre os 30 países de maior expressão econômica e com maior carga tributária. Traduzindo: o Brasil cobra muitos impostos de seus cidadãos, porém devolve a eles muito pouco em qualidade de vida.
Também não há nada a comemorar quando a questão é o combate à corrupção porque da 69ª posição mundial em 2002 caímos em 2024 para a 104ª colocação, de acordo com levantamento da Transparência Internacional.
A educação é outro exemplo do fracasso administrativo das últimas décadas. Entre 56 países – os 38 membros da OCDE e mais 18 nações convidadas pela instituição, o Brasil ficou na desonrosa 44° posição em 2024. E como se não bastasse, o cidadão brasileiro vive com medo: o país é recordista mundial em número absoluto de homicídios intencionais, índice que retrata bem a situação da segurança urbana.
Durante décadas, o discurso do governo foi de que não se via a necessidade de corte de gastos, de que a pressão por essa medida era resultado da insensibilidade dos super-ricos que não querem pagar impostos sobre seus ganhos, e outros argumentos do gênero.
Agora no início de dezembro, com atraso injustificável, o governo apresentou medidas para o corte de R$ 327 bilhões, nos próximos seis anos, sendo de R$ 70 bilhões no biênio 2025/2026. O mercado reagiu mal porque foi uma decisão tardia, mal explicada e insuficiente. Afinal, se tais medidas tivessem sido anunciadas há nove meses, em março, a taxa de juros Selic não estaria nos níveis de hoje (11,25%), com possibilidade de chegar a 11,75% ou 12,00% até o final do ano e atingir até 13,5% em maio de 2025, conforme admitiu o futuro presidente do Banco Central, Gabriel Galípolo. Com anúncio mais cedo, tampouco o país teria inflação supeior a 4,7% ao ano, acima do teto da meta. Isso porque, em março de 2024, o Brasil tinha taxa Selic de 10,50% a.a. e a dívida pública do governo geral (União, Estados e Municípios) não ultrapassava R$ 8,3 trilhões. A demora provocou desconfiança e a escalada dos juros.
Será um preço alto a ser pago pelo povo brasileiro por culpa da teimosia e da arrogância dos governantes. Isso porque, admitindo-se a taxa média prevista pelo futuro presidente do Banco Central, o controle da inflação levará a taxa Selic ao patamar entre 13,00% a 13,50% a.a. Com isso, a dívida pública chegará a R$ 9,1 trilhões no fechamento de 2024. A conta final será da ordem de R$ 199,33 bilhões (juros adiocionais), valor bem superior ao corte anunciado para 2025 e 2026, cuja soma é estimada em R$ 70 bilhões. Tudo o que foi anunciado com pompa e circunstância, portanto, terá efeito prático nulo.
Para quem acredita que não haveria outra saída, basta lembrar que o governo poderia fazer cortes no excesso de gasto com o funcionalismo público, hoje consumindo R$ 351 bilhões por ano, ou 3% do PIB. Poderia ainda reduzir os gastos tributários, atualmente de R$ 646 bilhões/ano, que correpondem a 5,50% do PIB. Ou atacar a corrupção, responsável por desvio de 2,5% do PIB que, se reduzido a 1,5%, representaria cerca de R$ 175 bilhões. Somente com essas três frentes a economia seria de R$ 1,17 trilhão por ano.
Cabe ao governo entender que melhor forma de governar e administrar é prEver e não prOver. Uma simples troca de vogal mudaria a ação do Estado brasileiro porque significaria a diferença entre planejar e buscar alternativa a uma UTI ou recorrer ao Corpo de Bombeiros. Medidas emergenciais nunca serão capazes de superar os resultados de bom planejamento.
Gastança gera déficit, que por sua vez produz dívidas. E essas dívidas implicam em pagamentos adicionais de juros. Esse círculo vicioso vai sangrando o Tesouro, o que significa a redução dos recursos necessários no investimento em serviços essenciais. Os reflexos são inevitáveis: queda na qualidade de vida e empobrecimento da população, que parece condenada a pagar pelos equívocos dos governantes.
Definitivamente, o corte anunciado passou longe de ser um bom presente de Natal para o sofrido povo brasileiro, ou ao menos uma perspectiva otimista para o Ano Novo. O desejo colocado no topo da lista do Papai Noel por toda a nação, acredito, sem dúvida é o de que os governos e governantes parem de insistir na divisão dos brasileiros, demonizando ricos e elegendo como vilões os empresários, os super-ricos, os banqueiros da Faria Lima e os gestores altamente capazes do BACEN.
O Brasil precisa de todos os cidadãos, independentemente de suas condições financeiras e de seu nível de escolaridade. E é necessário fazermos uma reflexão sobre a responsabilidade de todos os 212,6 milhões de brasileiros, (IBGE-29/08/2024) que elegeram democraticamente todos os governantes pelo voto popular, porque respondemos por nossas escolhas e decisões.
Fica o ensinamento de que nas próximas eleições temos que votar com mais consciência e não apenas na base da simpatia ou das promessas do candidato. Afinal, como afirmava corretamente o pensador, orador e líder político norte-americano do século XIX Robert G. Ingersoll, “não há no mundo nem recompensa, nem castigo, o que há são consequências”.
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